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Trump’s job approval is higher than ever — is Bernie’s rise to blame?
By Kent R. Kroeger (February 28, 2020)
If you are a Democrat, you may want to sit down before you read this.
According to RealClearPolitics.com’s poll average, President Donald Trump’s current job approval (46.4%) is the highest it has ever been during his presidency (see Figure 1 below).
Figure 1: President Trump’s Job Approval (RCP poll average)
And while Trump’s job approval remains under water (more U.S. adults disapprove of his job performance than approve), he has crossed a threshold (46%) that represents the minimum level needed to win re-election, according to one prominent econometric prediction model.
It should be noted, however, that no incumbent president in the modern polling era has been re-elected with approval below 50 percent on Election Day. Nonetheless, a number of other prediction models are corroborating the importance of the 46%-threshold, including the PredictIt.com futures market (see Figure 2).
