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There will be fewer tropical cyclones, but they will be stronger (and probably bigger)
By Kent R. Kroeger (May 8, 2019)
My previous essay investigated whether tropical cyclones since 1960 have grown more intense. Admittedly, my finding that the minimum central pressure of the average tropical cyclone was dropping by .09 millibars (mb) every year was exploratory. I am a statistician, not a climatologist — which means I’m comfortable enough with climate data to do real damage.
Intellectual limitations aside, my earlier conclusion is consistent with other climatological studies whose models predict a higher frequency of high-intensity storms in the South Indian Ocean, the Northern Atlantic and worldwide.
My motive for analyzing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone data was not about challenging climate science, but rather a demonstration of how much high-quality, globally comprehensive climate data is available to the public for analysis.
And to confirm, to my own satisfaction, many of claims being made by climate researchers regarding tropical cyclones.
To the credit of the climate science community, they put their data online. They don’t hide it. And when they systematically adjust…
