National wealth, tourism and inexperience are helping drive the spread of the coronavirus

By Kent R. Kroeger (March 12, 2020)

The coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (Image provided by Dr. Fred Murphy/Centers for Disease Control)

Wealth, tourism and inexperience with communicable diseases are significant correlates with the current nation-level distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (the disease caused by the coronavirus).

Using nation-level COVID-19 data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and socio-economic data from the World Bank, I developed a cross-sectional linear model to explain why, as of 10 March, some countries are seeing more confirmed cases of COVID-19 than others.

My initial findings are, on the one hand, unsurprising:

• All else equal, countries with larger populations have more confirmed cases of COVID-19;
• Countries with a high percentage of annual deaths from communicable diseases are seeing relatively fewer COVID-19 cases (mostly African, SE Asian, and Latin American countries);
• China has a disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases, even given its large population size;

And, in other cases, more thought-provoking:

• Countries with higher national incomes per capita are experiencing higher numbers of COVID-19 cases;
• Countries with higher numbers of tourists…