My popular vote forecast for the 2020 presidential election

By Kent R. Kroeger (January 8, 2020)

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump at their Sept. 25, 2019 meeting (Photo by The Presidential Office of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0)
Source: The Gallup Organization
Source: Lewis-Beck, M. S. & Tien, C. (2016). The political economy model: 2016 US election forecasts. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 661–663.
Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll; Conducted Dec. 28–31, 2019 with 1,500 US adults; Margin of Error = ±2.7%
Data source: American National Election Study (2016); analysis by Kent R. Kroeger; data are weighted

I am a survey and statistical consultant with over 30 -years experience measuring and analyzing public opinion (You can contact me at:

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