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GOP: I have some good news and some bad news…
By Kent R. Kroeger (June 5, 2018)
First, the good news for the Republicans…
If Donald Trump has taught us anything, it is that the past is not always prologue.
Trump broke almost every major rule to get elected and is doing the as president.
One rule often promoted by political experts is that the president’s party will lose a significant number of seats during the midterm elections.
History supports this belief.
Over the past 21 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate.
Don’t assume that will happen in 2018.
The most recent polling data, as compiled by RealClearPolitics.com, suggests the Democrats are losing the momentum they possessed only a few months ago.
The RealClearPolitics.com generic ballot for the 2018 midterms gives the Democrats roughly a 3-point advantage. And, based on past experience, generic ballot numbers are predictive of House election outcomes, as seen in this graphic produced by Nate Silver…
