Coronavirus update: Beach states may be the new hot spots

By Kent R. Kroeger (May 28, 2020)

Model of the replicase-transcriptase complex of a coronavirus. (Image by Everett Clinton Smith and Mark R. Denison; This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University — CSSE
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University — CSSE

New COVID-19 Path Model (updated through 25 May 2020)

Figure 3 (below) shows the coefficient estimates for a path (mediation) model estimated in JASP, a free statistical software package available here. More detailed results for this path model are in the Appendix at the end of this essay.

Data Source: Johns Hopkins University — CSSE; Data Analysis by Kent R. Kroeger (

Final Thoughts

As I must always caveat any statistical finding related to the COVID-19 pandemic: the pandemic is far from over. In fact, we may only be in the first of many contagion waves for this virus, according to The University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Indeed, the hopeful discovery and production of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine by early next year (or possibly late this year) may not completely eliminate the presence of COVID-19 in our lives.

APPENDIX: Path Model Output and Diagnostics

I am a survey and statistical consultant with over 30 -years experience measuring and analyzing public opinion (You can contact me at:

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