Are red states outperforming blue states in controlling the coronavirus?

By Kent R. Kroeger (April 21, 2020)

Key Takeaways: While it may appear red states are doing a better job than blue states in controlling the spread and lethality of the coronavirus, if we control for population density, the severity of the coronavirus in the state, and the number of days since the ‘first case,’ the conclusion is more complicated.

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Michigan, so far, are under performing relative to other states with similar circumstances (i.e., dense urban areas), but other blue states like California, Hawaii, Washington and Oregon are writing the book on how to handle highly-contagious, deadly viruses like the novel coronavirus.

Among states with Republican governors, Tennessee, Florida, Texas, South Dakota and Utah are controlling the effects of the coronavirus better than expected, while Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, and Oklahoma are not doing as well given their inherent advantage (i.e., less-densely populated).

Whether stay-at-home orders, travel bans, and other suppression and mitigation policies are useful in explaining these differences is an empirical question that won’t be answered definitively until the pandemic is over. Up to now, however, the evidence supporting stay-at-home orders is less than…